The Employment Outlook 2014 says that average jobless rates will decrease slightly over the next 18 months in the OECD area, from 7.4% in mid-2014 to 7.1% at the end of 2015. Almost 45 million people are out of work in OECD countries, 12.1 million more than before the crisis.

Globally, an estimated 202 million people are unemployed, with many more in low-paid jobs.

The report analyses the impact of the crisis on wages and finds real wage growth at a virtual standstill since 2009 with wages in a number of countries falling by between 2% and 5% a year on average, including in Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain. Mandatory minimum wages, which now exist, or are being implemented, in 26 OECD countries and a number of emerging economies, as well as in-work benefits, can help underpin the wages of low-paid workers. 

Long-term unemployment has likely peaked but remains a major concern, says the report. Just over 16 million people – over one in three of the unemployed – has been out of work for 12 months or more. Policy makers should prioritise efforts on helping the long-term unemployed back to work through more personalised job-search assistance and training programmes.

The Outlook also includes a new framework for assessing job quality, looking in particular at earning levels and distribution, job security and the quality of the work environment and highlights stability of the employment contract as an important dimension of job quality. 

The jobless outlook for 2015 diverges widely among countries, with unemployment falling but still remaining very high in Spain (around 24%) and Greece (around 27%). The euro area will see joblessness decline to 11.2% at the end of 2015.

Unemployment is forecast to fall below 5% by the end of 2015 in Austria, Germany, Iceland, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland.